国际舆论平静接受中国经济或将赶美
发布时间: 2010-09-05 浏览次数: 244

 

国际舆论平静接受中国经济或将赶美
2007525
 
李婧
 
民意调查显示,虽然国际舆论相信中国经济或将赶上美国,但大多数人对此反应平淡,泰然接受。
芝加哥全球事务委员会和国际舆情组织(The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and WorldPublicOpinion.org)于2007年开展了一项跨国民意调查,发现大部分国际公民都相信中国的经济很快就会和美国不相上下。而且,多数人认为这是一件好事,至少好坏参半,没有哪个国家认为中国崛起主要带来的是负面影响。
国际舆情组织的负责人Steven Kull说:“令人惊讶的是,尽管中国经济赶上美国这件事情意义非凡,但是国际民众只是平静地接受,表现低调。”
如此乐观的态度并不等于中国在国际社会获取的信任度高。较之美国,中国在国际社会得到的信赖并不比它多,而且,明显输于日本。
参与该项民意调查的国家有中国、印度、美国、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯、法国、泰国、乌克兰、波兰、伊朗、墨西哥、韩国、菲律宾、澳大利亚、阿根廷、秘鲁、以色列、亚美尼亚,以及巴勒斯坦地区。参加调查的人数占全世界人口的56%。
   
看好中国
 
调查中,有15个国家被问及:“中国经济有无可能在未来发展到和美国一样的水平?”,其中13个国家信任中国,另有两个国家持反对意见。
中国人在这个问题上显得不太自信,只有50%的民众认为有可能赶上美国。相比之下,美国倒是有60%的人表示看好中国。
此外,秘鲁(76%)、以色列(75%)、法国(69%)、伊朗(64%)、俄罗斯(62%)、阿根廷(61%)和韩国(61%)都有超过半数的民众相信中国经济的潜力。总体而言,受调查国家中,看好中国的人数平均达到54%,中国连这个比例都没达到。
只有两个国家,更多的民众认为“美国经济仍然会独占鳌头”。42%的菲律宾人认为美国依然会是经济霸主,只有38%的人相信中国可能改变这一局面。印度有36%的人力挺美国,22%的人相信中国,更多的人(42%)不愿意对此表态。
 
中国崛起不好不坏
 
13个被问及“对中国经济或将赶美持何种态度?”的国家中,多数人表示无所谓。最普遍的观点是利弊皆有,认为会产生正面影响的人数略多于认为会有负面影响的人。
美国对中国崛起的态度最为担心,有30%的人担心中国未来可能赶上美国,但是大部分人(54%)还是对中国经济的崛起持中立态度,只有9%的人认为这是件好事。
大部分法国人(46%)、菲律宾人(42%)、和以色列人(41%)都认为中国崛起是件好坏参半的事情。但是在法国,对此持正面态度的人数(20%)少于持负面态度的人(29%);菲律宾正好相反,认为中国崛起是好事的人数(26%)超过持反面态度者(17%)。甚至以色列这样一个一直寻求美国支持的国家,都有27%的民众对中国崛起抱有正面的看法。
对俄罗斯来说,中国既是竞争对手,也是和美国抗衡的砝码。如此复杂的情感使得俄罗斯人对中国崛起的态度也不太统一。34%的民众认为有好有坏,22%的人认为是好事,24%的人则持负面看法,但是各种态度所占的比例相差不大。波兰和印度也出现了类似的结果。22%的波兰人认为是好事,21%的人反对,34%的人表示好坏参半。印度持正面意见的人数(28%)和持负面意见(31%)的人数基本相当,只有20%的人认为利弊皆有。
伊朗的大部分民众(60%)认为中国崛起会带来积极影响。这主要是因为一方面近几年来,中国大力投资伊朗的石油,另一方面伊朗也希望借助中国的力量和美国抗衡。此外,墨西哥(38%)、阿根廷(34%)、泰国(34%)和乌克兰(30%)的大部分民众也认为中国崛起会带来积极影响。
从总体的调查结果来看,最普遍的看法就是中国经济赶上美国既会带来正面影响也会带来负面影响。除此之外,认为主要产生积极影响的人数(29%)超过持反面态度的人数(20%)。
 
中国和美国一样不值得信赖
 
尽管国际舆论看好中国经济,但这并不意味着对中国政府的信任。在15个被问及中国信任度的国家中,有10个认为中国不会有负责任的作为。总体来看,除去10%没有表态的人,对中国根本不信任或者是非常不信任的人数(52%)多于比较相信和非常相信的人数(38%)。
芝加哥全球事务委员会的研究执行董事Christopher Whitney说:“虽然大多数人没有将中国崛起视为一种威胁,但他们也并没有就此认为中国会成为一个善良的世界领袖。大家都理智地看到中国还是会以本国利益为重。”
这一结果和美国所得到的评价相似。接受调查的15个国家中,同样是10个对美国负责任的国家形象表示怀疑。总体来看,除去6%没有表态的人,不信任美国的人数(53%)超过信任的人数(41%)。
但这并不代表大家怀疑所有主要的国际力量。日本在国际上所得到的信赖度就比较高。16个国家中有11个认为日本是个负责任的国家。总体而言,除去11%不表态的人,信任日本的人数(46%)略微多于反对人数(43%)。
法国人对中国的信任度最低。高达76%的法国人不信任中国,其中33%的人认为根本不可信,43%的人认为不怎么值得信任。不信任美国的占70%。这样看来,在法国人心目中,中国的形象比美国还糟糕。同样不太信任中国的国家还有秘鲁(70%)、阿根廷(65%)和韩国(61%)。
泰国(59%)、美国(58%)和俄罗斯(56%)都有一半左右的民众怀疑中国负责任的大国形象。其中53%的泰国人、47%的俄罗斯人和60%的美国人认为中国在制定外交政策时没有考虑他国利益。
在印度、以色列和波兰,不信任中国的人数都超过了持信任态度的人数(印度:49%﹕42%;以色列:47%﹕42%﹔波兰:47%﹕28%)。其中,有61%的以色列人、69%的波兰人以及46%的印度人认为中国在外交事务上没有为他们考虑。
比较信任中国的主要是其在亚太地区的几个国家,澳大利亚(59%)、印度尼西亚(59%)和菲律宾(57%)都有超过半数的民众表示相信中国。近年来,中国和这些国家之间的贸易关系进一步加强,澳大利亚和东盟(东南亚国家联盟)也都增加了同中国之间的经济往来。除此之外,乌克兰的民众中,尽管有62%的人认为中国在外交决策中没有考虑他国利益,但倾向于信任中国的人数(46%)仍然多于不信任的人数(29%)。
调查发现不信任中国的国家同样对美国的信任度也很低。针对美国的调查显示,南美的两个国家:阿根廷(84%)和秘鲁(80%)对其信任度最低。俄罗斯紧随其后,有73%的人不信任美国,其中66%的人认为美国在制定外交政策时不为他们着想。法国的大部分民众(72%)也同样认为美国不值得信任。
印度尼西亚和亚美尼亚是例外。虽然,大部分印尼人表示了对中国的信任,但有64%的印尼人不信任美国。58%的亚美尼亚人不信任美国,但有一半左右的民众相信中国。
大部分的中国人(59%)、泰国人(56%)、韩国人(53%)和印度人(52%)同样对美国持怀疑态度。其中58%的中国人、49%的泰国人和46%的印度人认为美国在制定外交策略时没有考虑他国利益。
虽然有76%的波兰人认为美国在外交政策上没有考虑他们的利益,但还是有超过半数(51%)的人相信美国是个负责任的大国。乌克兰也是如此,63%的人认为美国没有为他们着想,但仍有49%的人信任美国(37%的人不信任)。只有以色列的态度比较统一,有81%的人信任美国,82%的人认为美国考虑了他们的国家利益。
相比这下,另一个亚洲经济大国——日本在国际舆论上的形象更加趋于正面。在10个接受调查的国家中,大部分的态度是:相信日本是个负责任的国家。其中,态度明显的有印尼(76%)、澳大利亚(72%)、美国(71%)、菲律宾(67%),法国也有51%的民众对日本持信任态度。
而且,绝大多数的美国人认为日本在制定外交政策时做到了为他国考虑。
6个国家表现出了对日本的怀疑,态度最明显是两个在二战中遭受其侵略的国家——中国(81%)和韩国(79%)。此外,秘鲁(60%)、泰国(60%)、阿根廷(52%)和俄罗斯(51%)均有超过半数的人不信任日本。
 
亚太地区对国际影响力的看法
 
 
亚太地区的众多民众认为中国的国际影响力虽然还没有赶上美国,但也不可小觑。他们认为中国在亚洲地区的影响可以和美国相提并论。
     调查要求10个国家分别为美国、中国和日本的国际影响力打分,分值从1到10所代表的影响力逐渐增大,10分为最高值,表示影响力最大。结果发现:所有国家一致认为美国的影响力大于中国,中国的影响力紧随日本之后或者和日本持平。
韩国打出的分数是,美国:8.5分,中国:6.7分,日本:6.5分。泰国所见略同,美国得到8.3分,中国和日本都是6.9分。印度给美国的得分不算高:7.3分,但还是超过了日本(6.2分)和中国(6分)。澳大利亚人只给了美国6.1分,略高于日本(5.7分)和中国(5.5分)。
只有印度尼西亚人认为三个国家中,日本的影响力最大,但是三国所得分数很相近,(日本:6.9分;美国6.4分;中国6.3分)。
中国人为自己打了7.8分,低于美国(8.6分)但高于日本(6.7分)。美国人比较自信,为自己打了8.5分,给中国和日本的分数一样,均为6.4分。
亚太地区的几个国家普遍认为中国在亚洲地区的影响力和美国不相上下。其中,澳大利亚和中国的大部分民众认为中国在亚洲地区发挥着比美国更大的影响,印度和印度尼西亚的民众对此持不同看法。
针对中国在亚洲的影响力,调查同样采取了1到10的评分方法,让中国、印度、澳大利亚和印度尼西亚的民众为中国、美国和日本这三个国家打分。
该项调查中,中国给自己的得分同美国一样高,达到8分,给了日本6.8分。澳大利亚人给中国打了7.5分,美国和日本得分一样,均为6.6分。
对此,印度和印尼持不同意见。印度和印尼都把最高分给了美国(印度:7.1分;印尼:7.5分),其次是日本(印度:6.2分;印尼:7.3分),最后是中国(印度:5.9分;印尼:7分)

    双边关系改善与否
 
虽然大部分国家都不怎么信任中国和美国,但是在问及他们与中美的关系是否改善时,大家的意见不一。有11个国家被问及,他们与中国和美国的关系是处于“改善中”“恶化中”还是“没有变化”?其中有6个国家认为无论和美国还是中国,双边关系都在往好的方向发展,剩下5个国家则认为没有什么改变。
对于中国和他们的双边关系,澳大利亚民众的态度最为积极,有50%的人认为处于提高状态。此外,印度(50%)、印度尼西亚(49%)、泰国(48%)、俄罗斯(44%)和以色列(40%)都有不少民众认为中国和他们国家的关系处于改善的状态。除此之外,58%的乌克兰人、52%的波兰人、49%的亚美利亚人、47%的韩国人和47%的美国人认为中国和他们的双边关系没有变化。
亚洲人口最多的两个国家——中国(53%)和印度(58%),均有超过半数的民众认为美国和他们国家的关系越来越好。同样,澳大利亚(50%)、亚美尼亚(48%)、印度尼西亚(46%)和泰国(37%)的民众中如此认为的人数也占多数。认为双边关系没有改变的有波兰(60%)、韩国(56%)、以色列(52%)、乌克兰(53%)和俄罗斯(45%)。
 
自由贸易在亚洲更受青睐
 
和美国人相比,亚洲国家对自由贸易的青睐程度更高。泰国、韩国和印度的大部分民众表示想和中国或者日本进行贸易往来。其中,61%的泰国人希望和中国开展自由贸易,63%的人想和日本;66%的韩国人青睐中国,50%的人想和日本;44%的人看中中国,48%的人看上日本。
受调查的4个亚洲国家都想和美国签订自由贸易协定。其中,中国的态度最明显,66%的中国人想和美国进行贸易往来(只有19%的人有异议),其次,泰国(60%)、印度(55%)和韩国(54%)也有不少人持有此种想法。
但是,美国人对此态度冷漠。他们并不愿意降低关税进口中国或者是日本的产品,尽管这样做有利于美国出口产品。美国民众中支持和日本开展贸易的人数略多于反对者(47%支持,43%反对),但是大部分美国人(56%)都反对和中国开展贸易。



World Publics Think China Will Catch Up With the US—and That’s Okay
May 25, 2007
Majorities around the world believe that China will catch up with the United States economically. It’s a prospect that leaves most of those polled—even Americans—unperturbed.
A multinational poll by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and WorldPublicOpinion.org finds that in most countries polled, majorities or pluralities believe the Chinese economy will grow to be as large as the US economy. In no country do most people think this would be mostly negative. Majorities in every country polled believe this is either a good thing or equally positive and negative.
“What is particularly striking is that despite the tectonic significance of China catching up with the US, overall the world public’s response is low key—almost philosophical,” said Steven Kull, editor of WorldPublicOpinion.org.
This sanguine reaction is not because China is widely trusted. World publics do not trust China any more than they trust the United States and distinctly less than they trust Japan.
This is the fifth in a series of releases from a wide-ranging international survey, which was conducted in countries that represent 56 percent of the world’s population: China, India, the United States, Russia, Indonesia, France, Thailand, Ukraine, Poland, Iran, Mexico, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, Peru, Armenia and Israel, plus the Palestinian territories. Not all questions were asked in all countries.
Bullish on China
Of the 15 countries asked whether it was “likely that someday China’s economy will grow to be as large as the U.S. economy,” majorities agreed in eight and pluralities in five.
The Chinese themselves are among the more skeptical countries. Only 50 percent say that their economy will catch up to the US economy. That is considerably less than the percentage of Americans who believe China’s economy will grow to be as large as theirs (60%).
It’s also less than those polled in Peru (76%), Israel (75%), France (69%), Iran (64%), Russia (62%), Argentina and South Korea (both 61%). The percentage of Chinese respondents who believe their country will catch up with the United States is even lower than the average of respondents in all 15 countries surveyed (54%).
In only two countries do those believing “the US economy will always stay larger than China’s” outnumber those who think China will catch up. Filipinos say the US economy will remain larger by a margin of 42 percent to 38 percent. Indians also tend to believe this by 36 percent to 22 percent, though even larger numbers refuse to answer (42%).
China’s Rise Neither Good nor Bad
Asked how they would feel if China were to catch up with the United States, publics show little concern. In no country among the 13 asked does even a plurality say that this would be mostly negative. The most common view is that this would be equally positive and negative, with slightly more saying that it would be positive than saying it would be negative.

The highest level of concern is in the United States, where one in three is worried. But a majority of Americans (54%) say instead that China’s economic rise would be “neither positive nor negative” while another one in ten (9%) say it would be mostly positive.
This idea that China’s rise would be equally positive and negative is also the most common view in France (46%), the Philippines (42%), and Israel (41%). However in France, those who believe this would be mostly negative outnumber those who say it would be positive by 29 percent to 20 percent. In the Philippines, the reverse is true: More say this would be positive (26%) than negative (17%). Even in Israel—which looks to the United States for support—more say it would be positive (27%) than negative (17%).
In Russia—which may view China as both a rival and a counterweight to the United States—negative and positive views about China’s rise are almost equally balanced. Thirty-four percent say it would be equally positive and negative, while almost exactly the same numbers say it would be positive (22%) as negative (24%). Reactions in Poland and India—both of which tend to have fairly positive views of the United States—are similarly balanced. Poles are indifferent overall, with 22 percent calling China’s rise positive, 21 percent negative and 34 percent both equally. In India, negative and positive views are also roughly equal (31% and 28%, respectively) though fewer say it is equally negative and positive (20%).
Only in Iran does a majority (60%) say that it would be mostly positive for China to catch up. Their favorable outlook may stem in part from heavy Chinese investment in Iranian oil as well as Iranian desires to have a counterweight to American power. But the view that this would be positive is also the most common response in Mexico (38%), Argentina (34%), Thailand (34%), and Ukraine (30%).
 
On average, across all countries polled, the most common response is that seeing China catch up with the United States would be equally positive and negative (32%), though those who think it would be mostly positive (29%) outweigh those who think it would be negative (20%).
China and the US: Equally Distrusted
The world’s seemingly sanguine view of Chinese possible economic ascendance does not mean most publics think they can trust Chinese leaders. Ten out of 15 publics polled say they do not trust China “to act responsibly in the world.” On average, those who say they cannot trust China “at all” or “very much” outnumber those who say they can trust it “somewhat: or a great deal” by 52 percent to 38 percent (10 percent do not answer).
“Though people are not threatened by the rise of China, they do not appear to be assuming that it will be a new benign world leader,” said Christopher
Whitney, executive director for studies at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “They seem to have a clear-eyed view that China is largely acting on its own interests.”
Attitudes toward China in this respect are similar to attitudes toward the United States, which is also distrusted in 10 out of 15 publics polled, Those who distrust the United States outnumber those who trust it by 53 percent to 41 percent (6 percent do not answer).
But this does not mean that people simply do not trust major powers. There is substantially more confidence in Japan, which is trusted to act responsibly in 10 out of 16 countries. On average the margin is slightly in favor of trusting Japan by 46 percent to 43 percent (11 percent do not answer).
Those most likely to distrust China are the French. Three out of four French respondents (76%) say they feel that China can either not be trusted at all (33%) or not very much (43%). That’s even more than those who distrust the United States (72%). Peruvians are also strongly inclined to distrust China (70%) as are Argentines (65%) and South Koreans (61%).
Thais (59%), Americans (58%) and Russians (56%) are about equally doubtful that China can be trusted to act responsibly. In Thailand (53%) and the United States (60%) majorities also say that China does not take their country’s interests into account when making foreign policy. A plurality agrees in Russia (47% to 42%).
Pluralities tend to think China cannot be trusted in India (49% to 42%), Israel (47% to 42%) and in Poland (47% to 28%), though large numbers of Poles are not sure (25%).
Israelis (61%) and Poles (69%) also say Chinese foreign policy does not take their interests into account. Indians also lean toward this opinion (46% to 43%).
Those most likely to believe China can be trusted include three of its Asian/Pacific neighbors: Australia (59%), Indonesia (59%) and the Philippines (57%). The trade of all four countries with China is growing rapidly. Australia and the ASEAN countries (which include Indonesia and the Philippines) are negotiating free trade agreements with growing economic ties with China. Ukrainians also tend to trust China (46% to 29%) even though they do not think that it takes their interests into account in foreign policy decisions (62%).
The countries that do not trust China also tend to be those that do not trust the United States. Two South American countries are the most distrustful of the United States: Argentina (84%) and Peru (80%). Russia is next with 73 percent saying the United States cannot be trusted. Two-thirds of Russians (66%) also say that US foreign policy does not take Russian interests into account. Most French respondents also say the United States cannot be trusted (72%).
Indonesia is an exception to the rule that countries tend to distrust both powers. Although Indonesians trust China, they do not trust the United States (64%). Armenia is another: divided about China but distrustful of the United States (58%).
Majorities in China (59%), Thailand (56%), South Korea (53%) and India (52%) also regard the United States with suspicion. A majority of the Chinese (58%) also say that the United States does not take their interests into account when making foreign policy, as do pluralities in Thailand (49% to 23%, 28% not sure) and India (46% to 44%).
A slim majority of Poles (51%) trust the United States to act responsibly even though a far larger one (76%) says that US foreign policy does not their interests into account. Ukrainians also tend to trust the United States (49% to 37%) although they do not think it considers their interests (63%). Four out of five Israelis both trust the United States (81%) and believe it takes their interests into account (82%).
In contrast, the other great Asian economy—Japan—gets a considerably more positive reaction from world publics. Majorities or pluralities in 10 of the countries polled say that it can be trusted to act responsibly, led by Indonesia (76%), Australia (72%), the United States (71%) and the Philippines (67%). A majority of the French (59%) also trust Japan.
On the other hand, the United States is the only country out of eight asked where a majority believes that Japan takes its interests into account when making foreign policy decisions.
Majorities in six countries say Japan cannot be trusted, led by two countries invaded by Japan during World War II: South Korea (81%) and China (79%). The Peruvians (60%) are also leery of Japan as are Thais (60%), Argentines (52%) and Russians (51%).
Asian/Pacific Views of International Influence
Asian/Pacific publics see China’s influence in the world as high, though not as high as the United States’. But they believe that China already wields nearly as much or more influence as the United States does in Asia.
Ten countries were asked to rate the world influence of the United States, China and Japan on a scale of 0 to 10, where 10 indicated the most influence. All 10 publics ranked the United States’ influence as higher than China’s. But China is close behind and on a par with Japan.
South Korea gives US influence a high 8.5, China a 6.7 and Japan a 6.5. Thai opinion is similar: the United States rates an 8.3 while China and Japan get the same score of 6.9. Indians rate US international influence slightly lower (7.3) though still higher than either Japan (6.2) or China (6) while Australians give the United States only a 6.1, only slightly above either Japan (5.7) or China (5.5).
Only Indonesia believes Japan’s influence surpasses both China’s and the United States’. Indonesia gives all three rather modest rankings: 6.9 for Japan, 6.4 for the United States and 6.3 for China.
China gives itself a 7.8, less than the 8.6 it gives to the United States but considerably above the 6.7 it gives to Japan. Americans give their country an 8.5 and rate the world influence of China and Japan as equal (6.4 both).
Four Asian/Pacific countries generally see China as already wielding nearly as much or more influence in Asia as the United States does. Australians and the Chinese themselves see China as more influential than the United States, though Indians and Indonesians see it as slightly less so.
China, India, Australia and Indonesia were asked to rate the influence in Asia of China, the United States and Japan on the same 0-10 scale.
The Chinese gave both themselves and the United States a score of 8, the highest scores given by any country, while giving Japan a 6.8. Australians think Chinese influence in Asia rates a 7.5, higher than that given by Aussies to the United States or to the Japanese (6.6 for both).
Indians place China’s influence in Asia at 5.9, below Japan’s (6.2) and well below the United States (7.1). Indonesians give China a 7, less than the United States’ 7.5 and Japan’s 7.3
Relations Seen as Improving or Stable
While most publics express distrust of China and the United States, views are mixed about whether relations are now moving in a positive or negative direction. Asked whether their relations with the United States and with China are improving, getting worse or staying the same, six out of 11 countries polled tend to say they are getting better in both cases, while the other five say they are staying the same.
Australia is the only country with a majority (59%) saying relations with China are on the upswing, though this is also the predominant view in India (50%), Indonesia (49%), Thailand (48%), Russia (44%) and Israel (40%). In the other countries, the most common view is that their country’s association with China is stable: Ukraine (58%), Poland (52%), Armenia (49%), South Korea (47%) and the United States (47%).
Majorities in Asia’s two most populous countries—India (58%) and China (53%)—see relations on the United States as getting better. This opinion is shared by pluralities in Australia (50%), Armenia (48%), Indonesia (46%) and Thailand (37%). The others say relations are stable: Poland (60%), South Korea (56%), Israel (52%), Ukraine (52%) and Russia (45%).
Free Trade More Popular in Asia than in US
Four Asian countries are more open to free trade agreements with each other and with the United States than Americans are. Majorities in Thailand favor agreements with China (61%) or Japan (63%). Koreans also tend to look favorably on such accords, especially with China. Two-thirds would like such an agreement with China (66%) and a plurality of 50 percent (vs. 46% against) would like one with Japan. Pluralities in India also would like free trade with China (44% to 25%) and with Japan (48% to 26%).
All four Asian countries polled support free-trade agreements with the United States. China has the largest majority in favor of such pacts: 66 percent say they would like a free trade agreement with the United States and only 19 percent say they would not. Three out of five Thais (60%) would also like such an accord, as would a majority of Indians (55%) and South Koreans (54%).
In contrast, Americans themselves are somewhat leery of lowering their tariff barriers to Chinese or Japanese goods even in exchange for reciprocal action in favor of US goods. US respondents lean slightly in favor of free trade with their close ally Japan (47% to 43%) but a majority opposes such an agreement with China (56%).